Will Grimondism tempt No. 10’s new tenant?
Jonathan Wills looks at the prospect of Scottish independence in a first ‘Bressay essay’
Well, the Scottish Parliament election was almost two months ago now and the sky still hasn’t fallen on our heads as the Chicken Licken Leeberalls said it would. They’re all now being nice to Hannah Mary and discussing policy initiatives with her and other ministers in the new SNP Government. No doubt they’ve filed away for next time those bloodcurdling warnings about voting for them being the only way to stop the evil, scheming SNP dragging us out of our precious Union. But maybe that was all just blether, what you might call a Leeberall tease? You have to be quite old to get that joke, for not many folk can remember the Liberal Teas of the fifties and sixties, where ordinary voters could enjoy a free fancy and a cuppa while rubbing shoulders with the extraordinary Jo Grimond MP. Alas, the organisation that ran his teas no longer exists in Shetland.
In 1974 I stood against Jo in two general elections and found him a most courteous and congenial opponent. He told extremely funny stories in his Old Etonian drawl and was exceedingly good company. He was also a very smart politician who thought ahead of his time. I have been re-reading his book A Personal Manifesto, (which, surprisingly, was only published just as he retired from the House of Commons in 1983 and went to the Lords).
On page 54 he wrote this about devolution: “I do not like the word, as it implies that power rests at Westminster, from which some may be graciously ‘devolved’. I would rather begin by assuming that power should rest with the people who entrust it to their representatives to discharge the essential tasks of government. Once we accept … that the Scots and the Welsh are nations, then we must accord them parliaments which have all the normal powers of government except for those that they delegate to the United Kingdom government … I find it difficult to see how, if the case for Scottish and Welsh self-government is accepted at all, any powers can be reserved to the UK Government except foreign affairs, defence and the wider issues of economic policy linked to a common currency and common trade policies…”
I presume the excitable Lib Dem politicians who so recently professed themselves utterly terrified of an SNP majority at Holyrood have read this revolutionary founding text of modern Liberal Democratic thought. They’re all Grimondists, after all, are they not? So are a surprising number of voters who support other parties but who agree with Jo Grimond that achieving independence for Scotland is likely to be a gradual, negotiated process, not an overnight revolution. It’s also likely to be incomplete, if by independence we have in mind a 19th century sovereign state. There are few such states in the modern world, where most are interdependent, through their membership of international organisations such as the United Nations, the British Commonwealth, the European Free Trade Area, the European Union and so on.
Let’s assume the new New Labour Prime Minister has some common sense and political acumen. On recent form that’s a tall order, I grant you, but for the sake of argument let’s say he (or she) wishes to settle the Scottish question. The obvious first step is to agree that the Scottish Parliament, rather than the majority English one in Westminster, should decide whether or not to hold a referendum.
Let’s assume the referendum is held and there’s a majority for independence. What would happen next? A unilateral declaration of independence? That’s unlikely, given the social democratic, constitutionalist character of Scotland’s present SNP ministers. If they did declare UDI the Westminster Government would, of course, immediately send in the troops and arrest the ringleaders of the rebellion. History teaches us that’s almost always what the UK does in such circumstances. A civil war might ensue and nobody wants that.
We do have to bear in mind that even partial independence for Scotland would probably mean the removal from Scotland of American-owned (but UK taxpayer-financed) nuclear weapons and their submarines. That was another Jo Grimond policy, supported by the Liberal Party. Then there’s the probable loss of the UK’s membership of the United Nations Security Council if the UK no longer exists. Both these prospects horrify the clients of international finance who currently control the Labour, Tory and Faragiste parties. Their paymasters will do everything in their power to prevent full Scottish self-government. “You ain’t seen nothing yet”.
What’s much more likely to happen than UDI is that negotiations would begin. These would be long and complicated. This would frustrate the ‘blood-and-soil’ tendency in the SNP, who’d get angry and accuse the Scottish Government of procrastination, betrayal, treason and worse. But they always do that, at the slightest pretext, so they’re unlikely to have much effect on the actual talks between our first minister and the UK Prime Minister. These discussions would be about, among other things:
- how much of the taxes raised in Scotland should be controlled by the Scottish Parliament (all, I would say);
- how much of the UK’s staggering national debt Scotland should be liable for (very little, if fairness and reason prevail);
- which areas of domestic policy currently in Westminster’s hands should be transferred to Holyrood;
- and which areas of policy and administration could be run as joint enterprises(such as the DVLA, the National Grid and Network Rail).
This last area obviously includes foreign affairs and defence, because we live in the same archipelago, have a shared history of relations with our European neighbours, and most of us presumably wish to continue to be regarded as family, friends and neighbours of those who live on Scotland’s English peninsula. We don’t want to fallout unnecessarily.
There would, no doubt, be arguments, denunciations and even walk-outs during the talks, but none of the issues is insurmountable, given goodwill, common sense and a willingness to compromise. It should take a couple of years to sort out most of it.
Of course, a really smart Labour Prime Minister would immediately convert to Grimondism and grant Scotland full self-government now, in everything except foreign affairs and defence. This may be too much to hope for but the temptation for Number 10 Downing Street will be very strong because its new tenant will imagine (wrongly, in my opinion) that such a dramatic move would sideline the SNP ‘for a generation’, if you’ll pardon the expression.
Watch these spaces…
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