‘Clear trend’ in falling primary and nursery rolls
THE NUMBER of children in Shetland’s primary schools has dropped by more than 200 over the last four years, projected figures show.
Figures also show a decline in early learning and childcare (ELC) numbers, which have gone from 519 in 2021/22 to a projected 491 in 2025/26.
This appears to align somewhat with data published by National Records of Scotland last year that shows Shetland’s birth rate is declining.
Its data for Shetland is only available back to 1991, but 2024 – at 166 births – was the lowest since these records began.
The highest during this period was in 1992, when there were 324 births – nearly double that of 2024.
The declining primary and nursery rolls were mentioned in papers presented to a meeting of Shetland Islands Council’s education and families committee on Monday.
Children’s services director Samantha Flaws also told Monday’s meeting that a council project to potentially expand childcare in Lerwick could be “taken off the agenda” due to the decline in nursery numbers over recent years.
She said work on this project had already suffered from a lack of staff capacity.
Despite the declining numbers, the cost per pupil continues to be well above average.
The report added that the “challenge for future financial planning is to consider how to reduce the cost per pupil as rolls fall”.
The clearest decline in recent years is in the primary roll.
In 2021/22 this figure sat at 1,858 but the projected number for 2025/26 is 1,637 – a decline of nearly 12 per cent.
The secondary roll has increased, however, from 1,470 in 2021/22 to a projected 1,513 in 2025/26.
The cost per primary pupil in Shetland in 2023/24 was £11,270, which is well above the Scottish average of £7,213, while the cost per ELC pupil was £15,716 compared to a Scottish average of £11,659.
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Last week National Records of Scotland (NRS) published new figures for births.
The headline news is that the number of births in Scotland in 2024 was the lowest since records began in 1855.
Phillipa Haxton, head of vital events statistics for NRS, said the figures “reflect long-term changes in our population” and added that Scotland has had more deaths than births for over a decade.
A long-term move forwards smaller families and the cost of bringing up children have been cited as some possible reasons why birth numbers are falling over time.
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