School rolls expected to fall further in coming years

SHETLAND’s overall primary school roll is projected to drop by nearly 100 over the next couple of years, according to a council report.

Figures also show that the secondary roll is expected to decline after previously increasing or remaining steady.

Numbers for early learning and childcare (ELC) are also set to drop – potentially from 398 in 2024/25 to 249 in 2028/29.

However it is noted that it is more difficult to accurately project ELC rolls due to the young age of the children and the “associated uncertainty in future uptake and enrolment”.

The figures are contained within a report due to go in front of Shetland Islands Council’s (SIC) education and families committee on Monday.

Declining numbers of primary and ELC is nothing new, but there is now a slight downward trend projected for secondary pupils.

Secondary rolls are projected to reduce from 1,506 in 2026/27 to 1,479 in 2028/29.

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Projections for primary rolls include a decrease from 1,572 in the current year to 1,475 in 2028/29.

It echoes lowering birth rates which are not just experienced in Shetland but across the country.

A long-term move towards smaller families and the cost of bringing up children have previously been cited as some possible reasons why birth numbers are falling over time.

New figures released this week show that there were 45,067 live births registered in Scotland last year, which is the lowest annual total since records began in 1855.

The SIC report said that despite falling school rolls, the cost per pupil in Shetland continues to be well above average.

In 2024/25 the average cost per pupil was £17,133 in ELC, £12,405 in primary and £14,294 in secondary.

A review of data stemming from a 2024 census indicates that costs vary considerably between schools.

For primaries this ranges from £9,734 per pupil in Cunningsburgh to more than £47,000 per pupil in Burravoe in Yell, which could placed under consideration for mothballing.

For secondaries the cost per pupil varies from a low of £11,716 at the Anderson High School in Lerwick to around £34,000 at the Baltasound Junior High School.

The cost per pupil in pre-school settings range from £13,004 at the Lerwick ELC to £60,896 in Foula.

The report concluded that declining pupil numbers and increasing per-pupil costs is a “significant challenge” for the SIC’s children’s services directorate.

Earlier this month councillors agreed to undertake an options appraisal on the Burravoe Primary School in Yell.

It has four pupils attending the school for the 2026/27 academic year, while there are six staff.

Burravoe’s pupil roll has reduced from 11 in 2020/21 to four pupils, while just three are expected at the school in August 2027.

In 2024 Shetland Islands Council moved to mothball the Skeld Primary School due to its roll, with Fetlar also mothballed in 2022.

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