CAB - 7 Oct 2020 - 10 Oct 2020 - Advice

Letters / Impact of lockdowns more devastating than virus itself

Coronavirus lockdown as seen so far is an unnecessary and hysterical reaction, but more importantly a total waste of time with no evidence at all that it has slowed the pace of the virus, which is what we are told is its main function.

Having looked at the timelines in China, Italy, Spain and now in the UK, it’s clear the science/medical advice to governments etc is not evidence based with the (so called) advice just to pacify a panicking public’s demand for guidance and action.

Here is why: the model the medical advice is based on – which is secondary school year 1 biology stuff – to explain how rapidly cell division takes place, bears no relation to a real virus. Yes, everyone knows that a cell divides itself into two. The two cells divide again into four, the four divide into eight, eight into 16 etc.

Great at giving young students an idea of the curve of cell division but nothing at all to do with how viruses work in the affected organism. Coronavirus (others are available) can take between one and 14 days to show the symptoms, so a person who displays the symptoms within 24 hours may indeed only pass it on to two others before self isolating or not as the case may be, but the people who take longer will pass it on to many, many more.

One hypothesis on this suggests a person who takes 12 – 14 days to show the symptoms and who is making repeated visits to their supermarket for toilet roll due to panic buying, could pass on the virus to as many as 100 other people.

Also there are people out there who will carry and pass on the virus but who will not develop any symptoms and without proper testing will go unnoticed and therefore uncounted.

So calculating or predictions (total guesswork) on the spread of the virus based on one person infecting two and so on is utterly incorrect and borders on professional misconduct.

Lockdown or containment in China, Italy, Spain, France and almost here in the UK, has and is making a bad situation worse and hasn’t slowed down the pace of it

Lockdown or containment can only have an effect if it’s introduced early, as in when the first half a dozen people are tested positive. Even then if they have been to work, on a bus or train to another town it’s most likely to be too late.

All the lockdowns so far were implemented weeks too late to have any impact on the speed of spread of the virus, due to the high numbers of already infected people or carriers dispersing through their countries or abroad.

Because they have all been too late in their introduction, not one country, city or village around the world has seen a slowing of the rapidity of the virus.

However the combined effects of the global lockdowns will have a far greater and devastating effect than the virus itself, as lockdowns will now cause the greatest global economic depression and mass unemployment the world has ever seen, making the global financial crash in 2008 completely insignificant.

Vic Thomas