Skene welcomes poll analysis

SNP CANDIDATE for Orkney and Shetland Danus Skene has cautiously welcomed a poll predicting that he has a 56 per cent chance of winning the seat from Alistair Carmichael.

The Electoral Calculus website, which uses scientific analysis of opinion polls and electoral geography to provide its predictions, on Sunday put the SNP on 37.8 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 35.5 per cent.

Skene said the findings were an indication that “the SNP campaign in Orkney and Shetland is having a positive impact”.

However there are questionmarks over the poll’s accuracy, not least given that it projects a 5.5 per cent share of the vote for the Greens – who are not even fielding a candidate in the Northern Isles.

Last month local historian Brian Smith said he didn’t see “any likelihood” of Carmichael – who has served as Scottish secretary in the Tory-Lib Dem coalition – losing the seat he has held since 2001.

In 2010 Carmichael won a huge majority, taking 62 per cent of votes cast, with barely anything to choose between Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives on a shade over 10 per cent apiece.

Orkney and Shetland were two of the four regions most opposed to Scottish independence at last September’s referendum – with 33 per cent and 36 per cent voting Yes respectively.

Skene said: “This is only one set of figures, and predictions of a 56 per cent likelihood of an SNP win, against 41 per cent for the Lib Dems, need to be treated as just one view from one organisation.

“But with little over four weeks to go until polling day it appears that the momentum is with the SNP and my teams in Orkney and Shetland will be doing all they can to get the positive message across to voters that having an MP who is part of a strong team of SNP representatives at Westminster can only be good for the islands.” 

Other candidates in the Northern Isles are the Tories’ Donald Cameron, Labour’s Gerry McGarvey and UKIP’s Robert Smith.

You can read the Electoral Calculus website’s analysis in full here.